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A central bank is an institution that is responsible for setting the monetary and interest rate policies for the country in which they reside.  This means that it’s the job of the central bank to make sure that the economy is stable and growing while the prosperity of its nation's citizens continues to strengthen.  This is no small task either because most major nations are rather large and have a lot of moving parts within their economy.   
A central bank is an [[Fundamental_Analysis#Institutional_vs._Retail_Traders | institution]] that is responsible for setting the monetary and [[Monetary_Policy_Tools#Interest_Rates | interest rate]] policies for the country in which they reside.  This means that it’s the job of the central bank to make sure that the economy is stable and growing while the prosperity of its nation's citizens continues to strengthen.  This is no small task either because most major nations are rather large and have a lot of moving parts within their economy.   


=='''Introduction to Central Banks'''==
This Wiki is a part of our [[Essential Forex Trading Guide]]. Be sure to check that out [[Essential_Forex_Trading_Guide | HERE]].


All developed nations have their own central bank that is tasked with controlling the country’s monetary policies.  The monetary policy actions of the central bank will directly influence the price movements of the country’s currency.  This is because they have full control over the available money supply and set the interest rates.  This makes them a big deal to the Forex market. 


Control over interest rates, money supply, monetary policy, and much more is why central banks are so important to watch for all Forex traders.  Everything that they do will have a certain degree of impact on the price of their currency, and therefore, will have an impact on the trading decisions that Forex traders will take. 
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There will be many times when the central banks will dictate how a trader will navigate Forex the market.  In fact, when central banks need to make decisive policy actions these are the times when it’s actually less risky and there are more pips to be made.  Even though it can be more volatile in these times it can make for very safe trades if a trader has an excellent understanding of the fundamental situation with central banks and the Forex market.


One of the things that a Forex trader needs to do is monitor what the central banks are doing and saying.  The process for monitoring central banks is quite simple.  But before a trader gets too bogged down worrying about all the policies and intricacies of the central banks, all they really need to understand is what the central banks are thinking or what is currently concerning them the most right now in real-time.  Traders typically do not need to concern themselves with things that the central banks themselves are not concerned with.  This makes the interpretation of a central bank a bit simpler. 
='''Introduction to Central Banks'''=


It’s important when a trader is analyzing a central bank to appreciate that there are only one or two things that they need to concern themselves with at any given time.  The things that Forex traders need to be concerned with are the exact same things that the central banks are saying they are concerned withWhatever they are concerned with is going to drive their decisions on how they are looking to enact their monetary policies to keep the economy stable and growing. As a consequence of this analysis, traders get insight into where interest rates may be headed in the near future.
All developed nations have their own central bank that is tasked with controlling the country’s [[Monetary_Policy_Tools | monetary policies]].  The [[Monetary_Policy_Tools | monetary policy]] actions of the central bank will directly influence the [[Price_Action_Analysis | price movements]] of the country’s [[currency]]This is because they have full control over the available [[Money_Supply | money supply]] and set the [[Monetary_Policy_Tools#Interest_Rates | interest rates]]. This makes them a big deal to the [[Forex]] market.


Control over [[Monetary_Policy_Tools#Interest_Rates | interest rates]], [[Money_Supply | money supply]], [[Monetary_Policy_Tools | monetary policy]], and much more is why central banks are so important to watch for all [[Forex]] [[Trader_Types | traders]].  Everything that they do will have a certain degree of impact on the [[Price_Action_Analysis | price]] of their [[currency]], and therefore, will have an impact on the [[trading]] decisions that [[Forex]] [[Trader_Types | traders]] will take. 


===Why Traders need to know what Central Banks are Thinking===
There will be many times when the central banks will dictate how a trader will navigate [[Forex]] the market.  In fact, when central banks need to make decisive policy actions these are the times when it’s actually [[Sentiment_Analysis#Risk_On_and_Risk_Off | less risky]] and there are more [[Futures_Market#Ticks_and_Pips | pips]] to be made.  Even though it can be more volatile in these times it can make for very [[Safe_Haven_Flows | safe trades]] if a trader has an excellent understanding of the [[Fundamental_Analysis | fundamental]] situation with central banks and the [[Forex]] market.


The reason traders need to know what a Central Bank is thinking is that if traders know how the central banks are thinking, what they are happy and unhappy with, then they can use that information to try and predict how the market will react to that information in the very near future.  This is because big institutional players are searching for these same clues because they too are trying to get in on developing price trends as early as possibleIt’s human nature to want to predict where the price of something is heading so that we can make the most money with the least risk in the shortest amount of time possible.  This is the thought process of the big players and is the same process that retail traders want to be in tune with.   
One of the things that a [[Forex]] trader needs to do is monitor what the central banks are doing and saying.  The [[Developing_your_Trading_Process | process for monitoring]] central banks is quite simple.  But before a trader gets too bogged down worrying about all the policies and intricacies of the central banks, all they really need to understand is what the central banks are thinking or what is currently concerning them the most right now in real-time[[Trader_Types | Traders]] typically do not need to concern themselves with things that the central banks themselves are not concerned with.  This makes the interpretation of a central bank a bit simpler.   


Since the actions that the central banks take will move the price of currencies, this can offer us some excellent trading opportunities to trade around.  
It’s important when a trader is analyzing a central bank to appreciate that there are only one or two things that they need to concern themselves with at any given time.  The things that [[Forex]] [[Trader_Types | traders]] need to be concerned with are the exact same things that the central banks are saying they are concerned with.  Whatever they are concerned with is going to drive their decisions on how they are looking to enact their [[Monetary_Policy_Tools | monetary policies]] to keep the economy stable and growing. As a consequence of this [[Trading_Routine#Analysis_Phase | analysis]], [[Trader_Types | traders]] get insight into where [[Monetary_Policy_Tools#Interest_Rates | interest rates]] may be headed in the near future.




===Questions to Ask about Central Banks===
=='''Why Traders need to know what Central Banks are Thinking'''==


• What are the central banks thinking?
The reason [[Trader_Types | traders]] need to know what a Central Bank is thinking is that if [[Trader_Types | traders]] know how the central banks are thinking, what they are happy and unhappy with, then they can use that information to try and predict how the market will react to that information in the very near future.  This is because big [[Fundamental_Analysis#Institutional_vs._Retail_Traders | institutional players]] are searching for these same clues because they too are trying to get in on developing [[Price_Action_Analysis | price]] [[Trends | trends]] as early as possible. It’s human nature to want to predict where the [[Price_Action_Analysis | price]] of something is heading so that we can make the most money with the least [[risk]] in the shortest amount of time possible.  This is the thought process of the big players and is the same process that [[Institutional_and_Retail_Traders#What_is_a_Retail_Trader? | retail traders]] want to be in tune with.  
   
• What is their next possible move on interest rates and why?   


• How is their nation’s economy performing? 
Since the actions that the central banks take will move the [[Price_Action_Analysis | price]] of currencies, this can offer us some excellent [[trading]] opportunities to trade around.


• What is the central bank concerned with? 


• What economic data has the central bank stated they are watching closely?  (These will be the economic data sets that traders want to monitor closely as well).
=='''Questions to Ask about Central Banks'''==


* What are the central banks thinking?
* What is their next possible move on [[Monetary_Policy_Tools#Interest_Rates | interest rates]] and why? 
* How is their nation’s economy performing? 
* What is the central bank concerned with? 
* What [[Economic_data_releases | economic data]] has the central bank stated they are watching closely?  (These will be the [[Economic_data_releases | economic data]] sets that [[Trader_Types | traders]] want to monitor closely as well).


=='''Central Banks and Interest Rates'''==
Before delving further into central banks it makes sense to understand a little about interest rates first.  Traditionally, Forex market traders have been heavily invested in understanding interest rates and interest rate policies.  It is consumed over what interest rates are for a particular nation and, more importantly, where they think interest rates are heading over the medium and long term outlook.  The '''expectations''' are one of the most important things the Forex market will attempt to price in and nowhere is this truer than when it comes to interest rates. 


The Forex market participants will aggressively try and price in their expectations of future interest rate policy virtually every day.  This is because there are so many asset management firms that are heavily dependent on the interest paid for holding particular currencies in their portfolios.  These large asset management firms rely heavily on guaranteed interest payments from central banks and government bonds.  Many of the largest asset management firms in the world are heavily invested in multiple countries and therefore need to watch the particular currencies of the countries they are invested in quite closely. 
='''A Brief History of Central Banks'''=


If interest rates are rising in a particular nation then this is generally considered to be a positive thing for the native currency which tends to move higher in interest rate hiking cycles. If interest rates are falling within a particular nation then this is typically a bad thing for the native currency and prices typically fall.
Let’s take a quick look at central bank history for some context on how the modern financial system got to where it is today.


It’s the central bank of each nation that controls the interest rate for their respective nation.  If the Forex market is obsessed with interest rates and the path they are headed on, then it makes logical sense that Forex traders would want to get to know the central bank of the nation’s currency that they are interested in trading. 


Because the central banks control interest rates this forces the Forex market participants to become laser focussed on what each individual central bank is talking about and doing in the market.  The market also pays very close attention to the individual central bank members as well.
'''1870 - 1914'''


Between 1870 and 1914 the [[Technical_Analysis#Fair_Value | value]] of most major currencies was pegged to gold.  This meant that it was much easier to maintain a stable [[currency]] [[Price_Action_Analysis | price]] than it is today when there is no [gold standard] in place.  This is because the amount of gold available in the world was limited so it wasn’t too difficult to keep [[Fundamental_Analysis#Inflation_and_Deflation | inflation]] under control.  The [[Price_Action_Analysis | price]] of gold was also historically quite stable at the time. 


=='''Overview of what Central Banks do'''==
During this time the main role of the central bank was to ensure that people were able to convert gold into [[currency]] and issue an appropriate number of bank notes based on the country’s reserve of gold. 


A central bank's main job is to control monetary policy for the country in which they serve.  Basically, they do this by manipulating the money supply. 


'''[[Money Supply]]''':  This is simply the total amount of money that is available within the financial system of a particular nation.  It’s the amount of money currently in circulation within an economy. 
'''World War 1 and 2'''


Central banks are generally considered to be the “lender of last resort”.  This means that when the economy is struggling and commercial banks cannot cover the demand for money the central bank has the power and the resources to step in and take an appropriate level of actionIn other words, the central bank is there to stop the banking system from collapsing in on itself.  They do this by manipulating the available [[money supply]].   
Then came along World War 1 and 2 which forced central banks all over the world to change course.  The financial toll associated with the cost of war became so large that governments needed to raise a lot of extra money and they needed to do it fast to keep up with all the cost pressuresWar is certainly not a cheap thing to do.   


Most modern economies are very complex, and because of the lack of regulations, financial systems tend to get themselves into trouble about once every 10 years on averageThis is why central banks need to keep a close eye on developing trends in the economy to make sure that things don't get out of control, cause a financial system shock, or become unmanageable.   
They raised this extra money by abandoning the [gold standard].  With this newfound power to do whatever they wanted governments started printing vast sums of money to pay for the extra costs of war and repairing all the damages that resulted from the fightingDoing this led to steep [[Fundamental_Analysis#Inflation_and_Deflation | inflation]], which in many parts of the world became completely out of control.  [[Fundamental_Analysis#Inflation_and_Deflation | Inflation]] went so high that it forced most governments to eventually return to the [[gold standard]].


Aside from the primary objective of controlling the money supply, most central banks are also tasked with providing the country’s currency with price stability.  It also has regulatory authority over the country’s monetary policy along with the sole right to produce and circulate new currency inside the country.   
Because it was obvious that politicians with too much power over the supply of money is not good for the stability of their country’s [[currency]] the solution was to create completely independent central banks to guide [[Monetary_Policy_Tools | monetary policy]] outside of politics.   


Central banks are separate from the governments of each nation.  The idea is that they should perform mostly autonomously from any political issues that may be going on inside the world of politics.  This is because politicians don’t have the greatest track record when it comes to managing money.  This is exactly why we have central banks.
Central banks have been around for hundreds of years but in their current status and design, they have only been around since about the mid-20th century.


Having said that, the central bank is often referred to as ''“the government’s bank”'' in the sense that it’s the one that handles the buying and selling of government bonds and other similar transactions.


='''Central Banks and Interest Rates'''=


=='''A Brief History of Central Banks'''==
Before delving further into central banks it makes sense to understand a little about [[Monetary_Policy_Tools#Interest_Rates | interest rates]] first.  Traditionally, [[Forex]] market [[Trader_Types | traders]] have been heavily invested in understanding [[Monetary_Policy_Tools#Interest_Rates | interest rates]] and [[Monetary_Policy_Tools#Interest_Rates | interest rate]] policies.  It is consumed over what [[Monetary_Policy_Tools#Interest_Rates | interest rates]] are for a particular nation and, more importantly, where they think [[Monetary_Policy_Tools#Interest_Rates | interest rates]] are heading over the medium and long term outlook.  The '''expectations''' are one of the most important things the [[Forex]] market will attempt to [[Price_Action_Analysis | price]] in and nowhere is this truer than when it comes to [[Monetary_Policy_Tools#Interest_Rates | interest rates]]. 


Let’s take a quick look at central bank history for some context on how the modern financial system got to where it is today.
The [[Forex]] market [[Interbank_market#Participants_in_the_Interbank_Market | participants]] will aggressively try and [[Price_Action_Analysis | price]] in their [[Having_an_Edge_in_your_Trading#Unrealistic_Expectations | expectations]] of future [[Monetary_Policy_Tools#Interest_Rates | interest rate]] policy virtually every day.  This is because there are so many [[Trader_Scouting_and_Prop_Firms_Overview_and_Comparison | asset management firms]] that are heavily dependent on the interest paid for holding particular currencies in their portfolios.  These large [[Trader_Scouting_and_Prop_Firms_Overview_and_Comparison | asset management firms]] rely heavily on guaranteed interest payments from central banks and government [[Fundamental_Analysis#Bonds | bonds]].  Many of the largest [[Trader_Scouting_and_Prop_Firms_Overview_and_Comparison | asset management firms]] in the world are heavily invested in multiple countries and therefore need to watch the particular currencies of the countries they are invested in quite closely.


===1870 - 1914===
If [[Monetary_Policy_Tools#Interest_Rates | interest rates]] are rising in a particular nation then this is generally considered to be a positive thing for the native [[currency]] which tends to move higher in [[Monetary_Policy_Tools#Interest_Rates | interest rate]] hiking [[Fundamental_Analysis#Economic_Cycles | cycles]]. If [[Monetary_Policy_Tools#Interest_Rates | interest rates]] are falling within a particular nation then this is typically a bad thing for the native [[currency]] and [[Price_Action_Analysis | prices]] typically fall. 


Between 1870 and 1914 the value of most major currencies was pegged to gold.  This meant that it was much easier to maintain a stable currency price than it is today when there is no [gold standard] in placeThis is because the amount of gold available in the world was limited so it wasn’t too difficult to keep inflation under control.  The price of gold was also historically quite stable at the time.   
It’s the central bank of each nation that controls the [[Monetary_Policy_Tools#Interest_Rates | interest rate]] for their respective nationIf the [[Forex]] market is obsessed with [[Monetary_Policy_Tools#Interest_Rates | interest rates]] and the path they are headed on, then it makes logical sense that [[Forex]] [[Trader_Types | traders]] would want to get to know the central bank of the nation’s [[currency]] that they are interested in [[trading]].   


During this time the main role of the central bank was to ensure that people were able to convert gold into currency and issue an appropriate number of bank notes based on the country’s reserve of gold.   
Because the central banks control [[Monetary_Policy_Tools#Interest_Rates | interest rates]] this forces the [[Forex]] market [[Interbank_market#Participants_in_the_Interbank_Market | participants]] to become laser focussed on what each individual central bank is talking about and doing in the marketThe market also pays very close attention to the individual central bank members as well.


===World War 1 and 2===


Then came along World War 1 and 2 which forced central banks all over the world to change course.  The financial toll associated with the cost of war became so large that governments needed to raise a lot of extra money and they needed to do it fast to keep up with all the cost pressures.  War is certainly not a cheap thing to do
='''Overview of what Central Banks do'''=


They raised this extra money by abandoning the [gold standard].  With this newfound power to do whatever they wanted governments started printing vast sums of money to pay for the extra costs of war and repairing all the damages that resulted from the fightingDoing this led to steep inflation, which in many parts of the world became completely out of control.  Inflation went so high that it forced most governments to eventually return to the [[gold standard]].  
A central bank's main job is to control [[Monetary_Policy_Tools | monetary policy]] for the country in which they serveBasically, they do this by manipulating the [[Money_Supply | money supply]].


Because it was obvious that politicians with too much power over the supply of money is not good for the stability of their country’s currency the solution was to create completely independent central banks to guide monetary policy outside of politics.   
'''[[Money_Supply | Money Supply]]''':  This is simply the total amount of money that is available within the financial system of a particular nation.  It’s the amount of money currently in circulation within an economy.   


Central banks have been around for hundreds of years but in their current status and design, they have only been around since about the mid-20th century.
Central banks are generally considered to be the “lender of last resort”.  This means that when the economy is struggling and commercial banks cannot cover the [[Sentiment_Analysis#Corporate_Demand | demand]] for money the central bank has the power and the resources to step in and take an appropriate level of action.  In other words, the central bank is there to stop the banking system from collapsing in on itself.  They do this by manipulating the available [[Money_Supply | money supply]].


Most modern economies are very complex, and because of the lack of regulations, financial systems tend to get themselves into trouble about once every 10 years on average.  This is why central banks need to keep a close eye on [[Trends | developing trends]] in the economy to make sure that things don't get out of control, cause a financial system shock, or become unmanageable. 


=='''Major Central Banks'''==
Aside from the primary objective of controlling the [[Money_Supply | money supply]], most central banks are also tasked with providing the country’s [[currency]] with [[Price_Action_Analysis | price]] stability.  It also has regulatory authority over the country’s [[Monetary_Policy_Tools | monetary policy]] along with the sole right to produce and circulate new [[currency]] inside the country. 


===USA – [[Federal Reserve]] (Fed)===
Central banks are separate from the governments of each nation.  The idea is that they should perform mostly autonomously from any political issues that may be going on inside the world of politics.  This is because politicians don’t have the greatest track record when it comes to managing money.  This is exactly why we have central banks.


The Federal Reserve is by far the most influential central bank in the world at the time of this writing in mid-2022.  Its currency is involved in an estimated 70% of all FX transactions that take place every single day.  Because of this, the actions that the Fed takes can have a strong impact on most of the world’s currency valuations.  This is because the USD is one-half of most all major currency pairs.
Having said that, the central bank is often referred to as ''“the government’s bank”'' in the sense that it’s the one that handles the buying and selling of government [[Fundamental_Analysis#Bonds | bonds]] and other similar transactions.


====Fed Structure====


Within the Fed, there is a group of people called the Federal Open Market Committee or FOMC for short.  This group consists of 1 chair, 7 governors from the Federal Reserve Board and 5 presidents from 5 of the 12 district reserve banks.  The 5 presidents rotate through the 12 district reserve banks every couple years ensuring all districts get a voting seat within a 4 years cycle. 
='''Monetary Policy and Money Supply'''=


All these people combined make up the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and they are definitely a big deal to the FX market so FX traders need to listen to what they say and do very carefully.   
Before we go deep into the [[Trading_Tools | tools]] that central banks use to enact [[Monetary_Policy_Tools | monetary policy]] it would be useful if we first took a more in-depth look into what [[Monetary_Policy_Tools | monetary policy]] actually is.   


====Fed Mandate====
[[Monetary_Policy_Tools | Monetary policy]] consists of the actions that a central bank takes which determine the size and rate of growth of the available [[Money_Supply | money supply]].  This in turn will have an effect on [[Monetary_Policy_Tools#Interest_Rates | interest rates]] because [[Monetary_Policy_Tools#Interest_Rates | interest rates]] are one of the central bankers favorite [[Monetary_Policy_Tools | monetary policy tools]] they use to help steer the economy. 


The Fed’s mandate is to achieve long-term price stability of the U.S. Dollar and ensure sustainable growth within the United States economy.  Under normal circumstances, they meet to discuss and change monetary policy 8 times per year.  They then release the “Minutes” from the meeting to the public one month later.   
[[Monetary_Policy_Tools | Monetary policy]]y is maintained through actions such as modifying the interest rate, buying or selling government [[Fundamental_Analysis#Bonds | bonds]], and changing the amount of money banks are required to keep on hand for client withdrawals.   


====Fed Minutes====
Broadly speaking there are two types of [[Monetary_Policy_Tools | monetary policy]]; [[Economic_Cycles#1_Expansion | expansionary]] and contractionary.  This is what we will take a look at next.


The meeting minutes are a summary of the key topics discussed and the views expressed by the individual FOMC members on those topics.  These minutes are something that the market pays a lot of attention to because there are potential clues in the wording of the minutes that can give traders insights as to what type of moves the Fed might make on interest rates in the near future. 


The FOMC discusses and prepares the wording of the minutes very carefully because they want to communicate very specifically to the market what they are thinking and what their intentions are.  Adding or dropping certain key words can have a huge impact on market expectations of future interest rate policies.  They communicate with the market in this way to try and keep price volatility as low as they can.  This communication style is a form of [[forward guidance]]. 
=='''Expansionary Monetary Policy'''==


==== [[Forward Guidance]] ====
[[Economic_Cycles#1_Expansion | Expansionary]] [[Monetary_Policy_Tools | monetary policy]] attempts to “Increase” the [[Money_Supply | money supply]] in order to lower [[Economic_data_releases#Unemployment | unemployment]], boost private-sector borrowing, encourage [[Economic_data_releases#Consumer_and_Personal_Expenditure,_Private_Consumption | consumer spending]], and stimulate overall [[Fundamental_Analysis#Economic_Cycles | economic growth]]. 


The Fed uses something called [[forward guidance]] very specifically.  This simply means that they like to give the market lots of little clues and hints about what potential changes to the policy they will make and when they plan on making these changes.  The idea is to minimize aggressive market reactions and control price volatility by stating things over time rather than hitting the market all at once. They do this because the more known something is to the market the less violent the reaction will be when the data is releasedRemember, part of their mandate is price stability for the US Dollar so this [[forward guidance]] is an attempt to accomplish price stability.   
This is often referred to as "easy [[Monetary_Policy_Tools | monetary policy]]." This easy [[Monetary_Policy_Tools | monetary policy]] description applied to almost all major central banks after the 2007-2008 Great Financial CrisisAlmost all developed nations slashed their [[Monetary_Policy_Tools#Interest_Rates | interest rates]] in an attempt to get their economies growing and expanding again.   


You can read all about what the Fed is currently up to and concerned about on its website.
Many economists have described this time as a modern-day depression.  [[Monetary_Policy_Tools#Interest_Rates | Interest rates]] were driven way down and in many cases near zero across most G8 central banks.  In fact, some central banks set their [[Monetary_Policy_Tools#Interest_Rates | interest rates]] below zero which means they had negative [[Monetary_Policy_Tools#Interest_Rates | interest rates]]!  This is not something that the world has ever seen before and we are not totally sure what the long-term ramifications are for such untraditional actions just yet.


[http://www.federalreserve.gov/ www.federalreserve.gov/]
Can you imagine putting your money into a bank and having them tell you that they are going to charge you interest for the privilege of holding onto your cash?  But this is exactly what happened and is currently still happening.


===Europe – [[European Central Bank]] (ECB)===


====ECB Structure====
=='''Contractionary Monetary Policy'''==


The European Central Bank, or ECB for short, was established in 1999The group within this central bank that decides monetary policy is called the [[Governing Council]].  The council consists of 6 members from the executive board of the ECB and the individual governors from each of the Euro area member nation central banks.   
Contractionary [[Monetary_Policy_Tools | monetary policy]] attempts “Decrease” or slow the rate of growth in the [[Money_Supply | money supply]]Sometimes a central bank will need to outright decrease the [[Money_Supply | money supply]] in order to control [[Fundamental_Analysis#Inflation_and_Deflation | inflation]] that is growing at a rate higher than the central bank's mandate.   


This means that all countries including Germany, France, and Spain have a spot at the table to ensure their voices are heardThis ensures that when policies are made they are designed with all Euro Zone members in mindIt’s important to make sure that no one policy is drafted that will adversely impact a specific member nation but benefits others greatly.
Historically speaking, this has sometimes been a necessary option for a central bankThere are times when contractionary [[Monetary_Policy_Tools | monetary policy]] is needed to slow [[Fundamental_Analysis#Economic_Cycles | economic growth]], increase [[Economic_data_releases#Unemployment | unemployment]] and depress borrowing and spending by [[Economic_data_releases#Consumer_and_Personal_Expenditure,_Private_Consumption | consumers]] and businessesIt is just not sustainable to think an economy can grow infinitely at large growth rates.  This is only done in a situation where [[Fundamental_Analysis#Inflation_and_Deflation | inflation]] is getting way too high and needs to be controlled.


====ECB Provides Forward Guidance====
The point here is that central banks are trying to keep [[Fundamental_Analysis#Inflation_and_Deflation | inflation]] stable and in line with their mandate.  This is typically around 2% per year.  If [[Fundamental_Analysis#Inflation_and_Deflation | inflation]] starts to get too low then they will have an expansionary [[Monetary_Policy_Tools | monetary policy]] and will use the [[Trading_Tools | tools]] they have to stimulate [[Fundamental_Analysis#Inflation_and_Deflation | inflation]].  If [[Fundamental_Analysis#Inflation_and_Deflation | inflation]] starts to get too high then the central bank will switch to a contractionary [[Monetary_Policy_Tools | monetary policy]].  The whole point is to control [[Fundamental_Analysis#Economic_Cycles | boom and bust cycles]] by keeping [[Sentiment_Analysis#Volatility | volatility]] within the economy low. 


The ECB likes to provide the market with forward guidance just like the Federal Reserve does.  This is their way of attempting to control price stability within the Euro currency. 


====The ECB’s Mandate====
=='''When Contractionary Monetary Policy Goes Wrong'''==


The ECB’s mandate is price stability and sustainable growth within the EurozoneHowever, they also strive to maintain an annual CPI (consumer price index) of just below 2%They do this because, as an export dependent economy, the ECB has a vested interest in preventing the Euro currency value from getting too high.  This is because having a high Euro value could hurt the exporting companies within the Eurozone.  Exporting companies are more profitable if they are paid with higher-value currencies.   
[[Monetary_Policy_Tools | Monetary policy]] is not perfect all the timeIt really is quite a difficult balancing act to steer economies that are so large and have so many moving partsLet’s look at a quick example of when contractionary [[Monetary_Policy_Tools | monetary policy]] goes so wrong for a couple of obvious reasons.   


====ECB Meetings====
In the early 1980s, the [[Federal_Reserve | Federal Reserve]] was forced into a situation where they had no choice but to stage an intervention.  The Fed really dropped the ball and allowed [[Fundamental_Analysis#Inflation_and_Deflation | inflation]] to get completely out of control which now reached roughly 15% annually.  Do you think this was a little out of line with their mandate of keeping [[Fundamental_Analysis#Inflation_and_Deflation | inflation]] levels stable at around 2%?  It’s not like [[Fundamental_Analysis#Inflation_and_Deflation | inflation]] went up to 15% overnight, it was years in the making.


The ECB meets most months of the yearWhen they make changes to policies they also host a press conference to go along with their statement and explain to the markets why they chose to make certain policy changes. As a trader, you know that something important is going to happen if the ECB calls a press conference with the release of their minutes because they have obviously changed some parts of their policies.
This out-of-control [[Fundamental_Analysis#Inflation_and_Deflation | inflation]] forced the Fed to take decisive actionIn a historical event, they chose to raise the benchmark [[Monetary_Policy_Tools#Interest_Rates | interest rate]] to 20%! This hike resulted in a severe [[Economic_Cycles#3_Recession | recession]]. However, it did keep the out-of-control [[Fundamental_Analysis#Inflation_and_Deflation | inflation]] in check by unfortunately causing harm to many everyday people and companies. There was simply no way for regular people to prepare for that level of [[Monetary_Policy_Tools#Interest_Rates | interest rate]] shock.


These press conferences will start with prepared remarks and typically have a question-and-answer session afterIf you are day trading it’s very important to listen out for any questions about monetary policy that may happen because these questions tend to lead to unscripted answers that may be important to your trades.   
It's obvious that [[Fundamental_Analysis#Inflation_and_Deflation | inflation]] got so out of control because the Fed waited way too long to start slowing down the economyHad the Fed reacted years earlier it could have kept with one of its mandates to keep [[Price_Action_Analysis | price]] stability under control. This is considered one of the few times that a major central bank failed miserably to meet its mandates to the economy.   


[https://www.ecb.europa.eu/ www.ecb.europa.eu]


=='''Exchange Rates'''==


===United Kingdom – The [[Bank of England]] (BOE)===
[[Exchange_rates | Exchange rates]], or the pricing of [[currency]], are generally moved by forces outside of the control of central banks.  But this is not always the case because sometimes central banks will step into the market and attempt to influence the pricing of [[Exchange_rates | exchange rates]]


====BOE Structure====
We have a larger Wiki on [[Exchange rates]] that covers everything you need to know including [[Exchange_rates#What_is_an_Exchange_Rate? | What an Exchange Rate is]], [[Exchange_rates#Exchange_Rate_Examples | Exchange Rate Examples]], [[Exchange_rates#The_Technical_Aspects_of_Exchange_Rates | The Technical Aspects of Exchange Rates]], How Exchange Rates are priced and [[Exchange_rates#Exchange_Rate_Pricing_Theories | Exchange Rate Pricing Theories]].


The structure of the Bank of England includes the [[Monetary Policy Committee]] or MPC for short.  The MPC is a 9 member committee consisting of a governor, 2 deputy governors, 2 executive directors, and 4 outside economic experts. 
The main page for [[Exchange rates]] is found here: [[Exchange rates]]


The BOE is frequently touted as one of the most effective central banks in the world because they have never once defaulted on its debt.  This is impressive because they have had a rather long history on the global financial scene. 


The BOE meets monthly to discuss and adjust monetary policy.  If they choose to meet more than once per month then this is an indication that there are some major concerns that the BOE is presently facing.  These are times that traders get some really nice trading opportunities with lower risk than normal because the price tends to move further and stronger for much longer than it would do under normal circumstances.  When the market gets concerned about something the price moves tend to be cleaner and more aggressive. 
=='''Money Supply'''==


====BOE Mandate====
The [[Money_Supply | money supply]] is just that; it’s the available supply of money that is circulating within an economy and globally of one particular [[currency]].  The central bank of each nation is tasked with controlling their country’s supply of money.  The [[Money_Supply | money supply]] is sometimes referred to as the “Money Stock”. 


Their mandate is to maintain monetary and financial stability within the United KingdomThe BOE monetary policy mandate is to keep prices stable and to maintain confidence in their currency.  They want to have confidence in their currency because the UK does business with a large number of other countries.  The UK is blessed with a very favourable geographic location that is great for international tradeTo accomplish this they have an inflation target of 2%.
The central bank of each nation manipulates the [[Money_Supply | money supply]]They will increase or decrease the [[Money_Supply | money supply]] depending on what their current [[Monetary_Policy_Tools | monetary policies]] are.  They do this by using a series of [[Trading_Tools | tools]] that can be employed in different market environmentsA lot of this depends on where they [[Trading_psychology#13._Beliefs,_Attitudes,_and_Perceptions | believe]] they are in the [[Fundamental_Analysis#Economic_Cycles | economic cycle]].


If inflation gets higher than the 2% level the central bank will look to curb inflation to a level below 2%This will in turn prompt them to again take measures to boost inflation back up when they have achieved their goals.  Most major central banks are targeting roughly 2% growth within their economies per year.   
There are several [[Trading_Tools | tools]] that central banks can use to enact their [[Monetary_Policy_Tools | monetary policies]]In the next section, we will take an in-depth look at what [[Trading_Tools | tools]] the central banks have and how they use these [[Trading_Tools | tools]] to move the economy in the direction they desire.   


[http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/ www.bankofengland.co.uk]


='''Central Bank [[Monetary Policy Tools]]'''=


===Japan – The [[Bank of Japan]] (BOJ)===
Central banks are major monetary authorities that attempt to control the size and growth of money in several ways using [[Monetary Policy Tools]]. In the following Wiki on [[Monetary Policy Tools]] we will cover the [[Trader_Types | types]] and kinds of [[Trading_Tools | tools]] that Central Banks use to control and steer the economy in their desired direction. We will look at:


====BOJ Structure====
* [[Monetary_Policy_Tools#Interest_Rates | Interest Rates]]
* [[Monetary_Policy_Tools#Price_Controls | Price Controls]]
* [[Monetary_Policy_Tools#Reserve_Requirements | Reserve Requirements]]
* [[Monetary_Policy_Tools#Credit_Control | Credit Control]]
* [[Monetary_Policy_Tools#Central_Banker_Language | Central Banker Language]]
* [[Monetary_Policy_Tools#Moral_Suasion | Moral Suasion]]
* [[Monetary_Policy_Tools#Open_Market_Operations | Open Market Operations]]
* [[Monetary_Policy_Tools#Quantitative_Easing | Quantitative Easing]]


The structure of the BOJ consists of a Monetary Policy Committee which is made up of the BOJ governor, 2 deputy governors, and 6 other members that are hand-picked by the governors.
The main Wiki on [[Monetary Policy Tools]] can be found [[Monetary_Policy_Tools | HERE]].


They typically meet once per month.  However, they have been known to meet twice per month on occasion if they feel there is enough concern about what is happening within the Japanese economy. 


Because Japan is very dependent on exports the BOJ has an even more active interest than the ECB does in preventing its country from having an excessively strong currency.  The BOJ has been known to come into the markets and artificially weaken its own currency by selling Yen against U.S. Dollars and Euros. 
='''[[Hawks and Doves]]'''=


====BOJ Jawboning====
Now we are going to look at the individual [[Sentiment_Analysis#Central_Bank_Member_Stance | central bank members' stances]].  That’s right, not all central bankers within a particular central bank will want the same thing when it comes to [[Monetary_Policy_Tools | monetary policies]].  This means that some may prefer to have higher [[Monetary_Policy_Tools#Interest_Rates | interest rates]] and other members will prefer lower [[Monetary_Policy_Tools#Interest_Rates | interest rates]] and they are called [[Hawks and Doves]].  The differences in those opinions are what we discuss in the following Wiki on [[Hawks and Doves]].


The BOJ has been known to be a particularly vocal central bank when it feels concerned about excess currency volatility and strength. It's very common to hear the members [[jawbone]] the Yen currency saying that the price is too high and if it doesn’t come down they will step in and take some action to prevent any further strengthening.
In this Wiki on [[Hawks and Doves]] you will learn the differences between a [[Hawks_and_Doves#Hawks | Hawk]], a [[Hawks_and_Doves#Doves | Dove]] and a [[Hawks_and_Doves#What_is_a_Centrist_(Neutral)? | Centrist]]. We will also explore [[Hawks_and_Doves#Central_Bank_Member_Speeches | Central Bank Member Speeches]], [[Hawks_and_Doves#Central_Bankers_are_Not_Created_Equal | Why not all Central Bankers are Created Equal]], and why we as [[Trader_Types | traders]] [[Hawks_and_Doves#Why_Traders_Care_about_Hawks_and_Doves | Care about Hawks and Doves]].


Sometimes the market will trade in line with this language and sometimes it won't.  The way we can figure out how the market will trade jawboning from the BOJ is by knowing how much credibility the BOJ has with the market at that time.  If they have not followed through on the last few threats then the market will probably not trade in line with the language.  But if they have followed through on recent threats then you can bet that the market will listen and act very carefully. Sometimes traders just have to do what they are told!
You can access the Wiki on [[Hawks and Doves]] [[Hawks_and_Doves | HERE]].


====BOJ Mandate====


Its mandate is to maintain price stability and ensure the stability of the financial system.  This means that inflation is the bank's top focus.  At the time of this writing, Japan has had near 0% inflation for more than 2 decades so inflation is almost always the most important thing to the BOJ. 
='''Major Central Banks'''=


[https://www.boj.or.jp/en/ www.boj.or.jp/en]


=='''USA – [[Federal Reserve]] (Fed)'''==


===Switzerland – [[Swiss National Bank]] (SNB)===
The [[Federal Reserve]] is by far the most influential central bank in the world at the time of this writing in mid-2022.  Its [[currency]] is involved in an estimated 70% of all FX transactions that take place every single day.  Because of this, the actions that the Fed takes can have a strong impact on most of the world’s [[currency]] valuations.  This is because the USD is one-half of most all major [[currency]] pairs. 


====SNB Structure====
For these reasons and more, we have created a separate Wiki devoted to understanding the [[Federal Reserve]]. In this Wiki, you will learn about the [[Federal_Reserve#Fed_Structure | Fed Structure]], [[Federal_Reserve#Fed_Mandate | its Mandate]], [[Federal_Reserve#Fed_Minutes | Fed Minutes]], [[Federal_Reserve#Forward_Guidance | Forward Guidance]], and [[Federal_Reserve#What_Does_the_Fed_do_and_How_do_they_do_it? | How the Fed Enacts its Monetary Policies]].


The SNB is actually a publicly listed company in Switzerland where people can buy and sell their shares. This is quite unique and different from most other central banks. 
The main Wiki for the [[Federal Reserve]] can be found [[Federal_Reserve | HERE]].


The Governing Board consists of three governing members and their three deputies.  These people are responsible for the operational management of the SNB. 


The Bank Council oversees and controls the conduct of business by the National Bank.  It consists of 11 members.  Six members, including the President and Vice-President, are appointed by the Federal Council, and five by the Shareholders’ Meeting. 
=='''Europe – [[European Central Bank]] (ECB)'''==


The Bank Council sets up four committees from its own ranks: an Audit Committee, a Risk Committee, a Remuneration Committee and an Appointment Committee.
The [[European_Central_Bank | European Central Bank]] (ECB) is the prime component of the Eurosystem and the European System of Central Banks (ESCB). It is also one of seven institutions of the European Union. At the time of this writing the ECB is one of the most important central banks in the world.


====SNB Monetary Policy====
In this Wiki we will explore the [[European_Central_Bank#ECB_Structure | ECB structure]], [[European_Central_Bank#ECB_Provides_Forward_guidance | Forward guidance]], the [[European_Central_Bank#ECB_Meetings | ECB meetings]], [https://volatility.red/European_Central_Bank#The_ECB%E2%80%99s_Mandate their mandate] and more.


The SNB’s monetary policy strategy consists of three elements.
The main Wiki for the [[European Central Bank]] can be found [[European_Central_Bank | HERE]].


# The SNB states how it defines price stability.  This statement changes over time as news and events shape the economy.   
# It bases its monetary policy decisions on a medium-term inflation forecast.  This can be interpreted as 6 months to 2 years.   
# It sets an operational target range for its chosen reference interest rate, which is typically based on the three-month Libor. This means that the SNB uses an interest rate band for their inflation target rather than a specific target rate like most other central banks. 


The Swiss National Bank conducts the country’s monetary policy as an independent central bank.  It's obligated by the Constitution to act in accordance with the interests of the country as a whole.  Its primary goal is to ensure price stability while taking the prevailing economic situation into account.  In so doing, it hopes to create a positive environment for economic growth.
=='''United Kingdom – [[The Bank of England]] (BOE)'''==


The SNB is one of the less active central banks meeting only once every three months. However, if they have something to be concerned about they will meet more frequently.
[[The_Bank_of_England | The Bank of England ]](BOE) is the central bank of the United Kingdom and the model on which most modern central banks have been based. The BOE was established in 1694 to act as the English Government's banker, and is still one of the bankers for the Government of the United Kingdom.


====Switzerland and Exports====
In this Wiki we will take a look at the [[The_Bank_of_England | Bank of England's]] [[The_Bank_of_England#BOE_Structure | Structure]], [[The_Bank_of_England#BOE_Mandate | Mandate]] and more.


Like Japan or the Euro Zone, Switzerland is also very export dependent which means that the SNB does not like seeing its currency become too strong.  Therefore, its general bias is to be more conservative with interest rate hikes.
The main Wiki for the [[The Bank of England]] can be found [[The_Bank_of_England | HERE]].


The main thing working against them in this regard is that many investors see the currency and the country as a stable thing to invest in which naturally causes the Swiss Franc to strengthen over time.  At the time of this writing, the SNB has not been afraid to push investors away by taking their interest rate into negative territory.  This means that they actually charge you for holding Swiss Francs.  Currently, in mid 2018, the rate is sitting at -0.75%!  Talk about not welcoming investment!


[http://www.snb.ch/en/ www.snb.ch/en]
=='''Japan – [[The Bank of Japan]] (BOJ)'''==


[[The_Bank_of_Japan | The Bank of Japan (BOJ)]] is headquartered in the Nihonbashi business district in [[Forex_Trading_Sessions#Asia_Pacific_Session | Tokyo]]. The [[The_Bank_of_Japan | BOJ]] is the [[The_Bank_of_Japan | Japanese central bank]], which is responsible for issuing and handling [[currency]] and treasury securities, implementing [[Monetary_Policy_Tools | monetary policy]], maintaining the stability of the Japanese financial system, and providing settling and [[Futures_Market#Clearing | clearing services]].


===Canada – The [[Bank of Canada]] (BOC)===
In this Wiki we will look at the BOJ structure, BOJ jawboning, their mandate and more.


====BOC Structure====
The main Wiki for the [[The Bank of Japan]] can be found [[The_Bank_of_Japan | HERE]].


The Bank of Canada has a similar structure to most of the other central banks.  Monetary policy within the BOC is made by a consensus vote by a governing council that consists of the BOC governor, the senior deputy governor, and 4 deputy governors. 


The BOC meets 8 times per year.  It’s very rare that they would call a non-scheduled meeting unless there was a major concern in the financial markets.  However, they did do this quite a lot in the Great Financial Crisis that kicked off in 2007.  But these were extraordinary times that called for extraordinary action. 
=='''Switzerland – [[Swiss National Bank]] (SNB)'''==


====BOC Monetary Policy Mandates====
The term [[Swiss_National_Bank | Swiss National Bank (SNB)]] refers to the central bank of Switzerland. Founded in 1906, the SNB is located in Berne and Zurich, with six other offices in the country along with a branch office in Singapore. The central bank acts as an independent body, taking charge of the country's [[Monetary_Policy_Tools | monetary policy]] and ensuring national price stability.


Canada's monetary policy framework consists of two key components that work together:
In this Wiki we will cover the [[Swiss_National_Bank#SNB_Structure | SNB structure]], [[Swiss_National_Bank#SNB_Monetary_Policy | Monetary Policy]], [[Swiss_National_Bank#Switzerland_and_Exports | Export Policies]] and more.


# The inflation control target and 
The main Wiki for the [[Swiss National Bank]] can be found [[Swiss_National_Bank | HERE]].
# The flexible exchange rate.


This makes their mandate to preserve the value of the currency by maintaining an inflation target between 1% and 3%. 


[http://www.bankofcanada.ca/ www.bankofcanada.ca]
=='''Canada – [[The Bank of Canada]] (BOC)'''==


[[The_Bank_of_Canada | The Bank of Canada (BOC)]] is [[The_Bank_of_Canada | Canada's central bank]] and was established in 1934 under the [[The_Bank_of_Canada | Bank of Canada]] Act. The Act stated that the [[The_Bank_of_Canada | Bank of Canada]] was created “to promote the [[Economic_data_releases | economic]] and financial welfare of Canada.” The BOC and its Governor are responsible for setting [[Monetary_Policy_Tools | monetary policies]], printing money, and determining the Canadian banks' [[Monetary_Policy_Tools#Interest_Rates | interest rates]].


===Australia – The [[Reserve Bank of Australia]] (RBA)===
In this Wiki, we will explore the [[The_Bank_of_Canada | Bank of Canada]], its [[The_Bank_of_Canada#BOC_Structure | structure]], [[The_Bank_of_Canada#BOC_Monetary_Policy_Mandates | monetary policy]] and more.


====RBA Structure====
The main Wiki for the [[The Bank of Canada]] can be found [[The_Bank_of_Canada | HERE]].


The RBA monetary policy committee consists of the central bank governor, the deputy governor, the secretary to the treasurer, and 6 independent members appointed by the Australian government. 


They meet 11 times per year, usually on the first Thursday of each month with the exception of January. 
=='''Australia – [[The Reserve Bank of Australia]] (RBA)'''==


====RBA Mandates====
[[The_Reserve_Bank_of_Australia | The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)]] is the [[The_Reserve_Bank_of_Australia | central bank of Australia]]. The bank sets the country's [[Monetary_Policy_Tools | monetary policy]] and issues and manages the Australian dollar. The RBA is involved in banking and registry services for federal agencies and some international central banks. The bank is owned entirely by the Australian government and was established in 1960.


The mandate of the RBA is to ensure the stability of the currency, maintain full employment, and economic prosperity and welfare for the people of Australia.  To achieve these statutory objectives they have an inflation target of between 2% and 3% per year.
In this Wiki, we will explore the RBA, its structure, mandates and more.


[http://www.rba.gov.au/ www.rba.gov.au]
The main Wiki for the [[The Reserve Bank of Australia]] can be found [[The_Reserve_Bank_of_Australia | HERE]].


An interesting note is that the Australian and New Zealand currencies are sometimes referred to as the [[Antipodeans]].


===New Zealand – The [[Reserve Bank of New Zealand]] (RBNZ)===
=='''New Zealand – [[The Reserve Bank of New Zealand]] (RBNZ)'''==


====RBNZ Structure====
[[The Reserve Bank of New Zealand]] (RBNZ) is the name of the central bank of New Zealand. Its primary purpose is to maintain the stability of New Zealand's financial system.


Unlike all other major central banks that we have discussed so far, the RBNZ has a structure that gives the decision-making power on monetary policy to the central bank governor alone.  The rest of the members act only as advisors to the governor.
In this Wiki, We will explore [[The Reserve Bank of New Zealand]], its [[The_Reserve_Bank_of_New_Zealand#RBNZ_Structure | structure]], [[The_Reserve_Bank_of_New_Zealand#RBNZ_Mandate | mandates]] and more.


They typically meet 8 times per year.
The main Wiki for the [[The Reserve Bank of New Zealand]] can be found [[The_Reserve_Bank_of_New_Zealand | HERE]].


====RBNZ Mandate====


Its mandate is to maintain price stability and avoid instability of economic output, interest rates, and exchange rates. 
=='''Other Central Banks'''==


The RBNZ has an inflation target of between 1% and 3%It focuses hard on this target because failure to meet it could result in the governor of the RBNZ getting fired by the government.
There are of course other central banks that you can trade around but the ones presented here are the major ones that will present [[Trader_Types | traders]] with the majority of their [[trading]] opportunitiesOnce you get comfortable with how to analyze a central bank you then might want to check out some of the Scandinavian central banks or Mexico as their currencies are liquid enough to trade and are increasing in popularity with [[Forex_broker | brokers]] and [[Institutional_and_Retail_Traders#What_is_a_Retail_Trader? | retail traders]].


[http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/ www.rbnz.govt.nz]
==Related Wikis==


===Other Central Banks===
Readers of '''Central Banks''' also viewed:


There are of course other central banks that you can trade around but the ones presented here are the major ones that will present traders with the majority of their trading opportunities.  Once you get comfortable with how to analyze a central bank you then might want to check out some of the Scandinavian central banks or Mexico as their currencies are liquid enough to trade and are increasing in popularity with brokers and retail traders.
* [[Monetary Policy Tools]]
* [[Economic data releases]]
* [[Developing your Trading Process]]
* [[Trading Routine]]
* [[Retail Forex Scams]]

Latest revision as of 16:29, 17 October 2023

A central bank is an institution that is responsible for setting the monetary and interest rate policies for the country in which they reside. This means that it’s the job of the central bank to make sure that the economy is stable and growing while the prosperity of its nation's citizens continues to strengthen. This is no small task either because most major nations are rather large and have a lot of moving parts within their economy.

This Wiki is a part of our Essential Forex Trading Guide. Be sure to check that out HERE.



Introduction to Central Banks

All developed nations have their own central bank that is tasked with controlling the country’s monetary policies. The monetary policy actions of the central bank will directly influence the price movements of the country’s currency. This is because they have full control over the available money supply and set the interest rates. This makes them a big deal to the Forex market.

Control over interest rates, money supply, monetary policy, and much more is why central banks are so important to watch for all Forex traders. Everything that they do will have a certain degree of impact on the price of their currency, and therefore, will have an impact on the trading decisions that Forex traders will take.

There will be many times when the central banks will dictate how a trader will navigate Forex the market. In fact, when central banks need to make decisive policy actions these are the times when it’s actually less risky and there are more pips to be made. Even though it can be more volatile in these times it can make for very safe trades if a trader has an excellent understanding of the fundamental situation with central banks and the Forex market.

One of the things that a Forex trader needs to do is monitor what the central banks are doing and saying. The process for monitoring central banks is quite simple. But before a trader gets too bogged down worrying about all the policies and intricacies of the central banks, all they really need to understand is what the central banks are thinking or what is currently concerning them the most right now in real-time. Traders typically do not need to concern themselves with things that the central banks themselves are not concerned with. This makes the interpretation of a central bank a bit simpler.

It’s important when a trader is analyzing a central bank to appreciate that there are only one or two things that they need to concern themselves with at any given time. The things that Forex traders need to be concerned with are the exact same things that the central banks are saying they are concerned with. Whatever they are concerned with is going to drive their decisions on how they are looking to enact their monetary policies to keep the economy stable and growing. As a consequence of this analysis, traders get insight into where interest rates may be headed in the near future.


Why Traders need to know what Central Banks are Thinking

The reason traders need to know what a Central Bank is thinking is that if traders know how the central banks are thinking, what they are happy and unhappy with, then they can use that information to try and predict how the market will react to that information in the very near future. This is because big institutional players are searching for these same clues because they too are trying to get in on developing price trends as early as possible. It’s human nature to want to predict where the price of something is heading so that we can make the most money with the least risk in the shortest amount of time possible. This is the thought process of the big players and is the same process that retail traders want to be in tune with.

Since the actions that the central banks take will move the price of currencies, this can offer us some excellent trading opportunities to trade around.


Questions to Ask about Central Banks

  • What are the central banks thinking?
  • What is their next possible move on interest rates and why?
  • How is their nation’s economy performing?
  • What is the central bank concerned with?
  • What economic data has the central bank stated they are watching closely? (These will be the economic data sets that traders want to monitor closely as well).


A Brief History of Central Banks

Let’s take a quick look at central bank history for some context on how the modern financial system got to where it is today.


1870 - 1914

Between 1870 and 1914 the value of most major currencies was pegged to gold. This meant that it was much easier to maintain a stable currency price than it is today when there is no [gold standard] in place. This is because the amount of gold available in the world was limited so it wasn’t too difficult to keep inflation under control. The price of gold was also historically quite stable at the time.

During this time the main role of the central bank was to ensure that people were able to convert gold into currency and issue an appropriate number of bank notes based on the country’s reserve of gold.


World War 1 and 2

Then came along World War 1 and 2 which forced central banks all over the world to change course. The financial toll associated with the cost of war became so large that governments needed to raise a lot of extra money and they needed to do it fast to keep up with all the cost pressures. War is certainly not a cheap thing to do.

They raised this extra money by abandoning the [gold standard]. With this newfound power to do whatever they wanted governments started printing vast sums of money to pay for the extra costs of war and repairing all the damages that resulted from the fighting. Doing this led to steep inflation, which in many parts of the world became completely out of control. Inflation went so high that it forced most governments to eventually return to the gold standard.

Because it was obvious that politicians with too much power over the supply of money is not good for the stability of their country’s currency the solution was to create completely independent central banks to guide monetary policy outside of politics.

Central banks have been around for hundreds of years but in their current status and design, they have only been around since about the mid-20th century.


Central Banks and Interest Rates

Before delving further into central banks it makes sense to understand a little about interest rates first. Traditionally, Forex market traders have been heavily invested in understanding interest rates and interest rate policies. It is consumed over what interest rates are for a particular nation and, more importantly, where they think interest rates are heading over the medium and long term outlook. The expectations are one of the most important things the Forex market will attempt to price in and nowhere is this truer than when it comes to interest rates.

The Forex market participants will aggressively try and price in their expectations of future interest rate policy virtually every day. This is because there are so many asset management firms that are heavily dependent on the interest paid for holding particular currencies in their portfolios. These large asset management firms rely heavily on guaranteed interest payments from central banks and government bonds. Many of the largest asset management firms in the world are heavily invested in multiple countries and therefore need to watch the particular currencies of the countries they are invested in quite closely.

If interest rates are rising in a particular nation then this is generally considered to be a positive thing for the native currency which tends to move higher in interest rate hiking cycles. If interest rates are falling within a particular nation then this is typically a bad thing for the native currency and prices typically fall.

It’s the central bank of each nation that controls the interest rate for their respective nation. If the Forex market is obsessed with interest rates and the path they are headed on, then it makes logical sense that Forex traders would want to get to know the central bank of the nation’s currency that they are interested in trading.

Because the central banks control interest rates this forces the Forex market participants to become laser focussed on what each individual central bank is talking about and doing in the market. The market also pays very close attention to the individual central bank members as well.


Overview of what Central Banks do

A central bank's main job is to control monetary policy for the country in which they serve. Basically, they do this by manipulating the money supply.

Money Supply: This is simply the total amount of money that is available within the financial system of a particular nation. It’s the amount of money currently in circulation within an economy.

Central banks are generally considered to be the “lender of last resort”. This means that when the economy is struggling and commercial banks cannot cover the demand for money the central bank has the power and the resources to step in and take an appropriate level of action. In other words, the central bank is there to stop the banking system from collapsing in on itself. They do this by manipulating the available money supply.

Most modern economies are very complex, and because of the lack of regulations, financial systems tend to get themselves into trouble about once every 10 years on average. This is why central banks need to keep a close eye on developing trends in the economy to make sure that things don't get out of control, cause a financial system shock, or become unmanageable.

Aside from the primary objective of controlling the money supply, most central banks are also tasked with providing the country’s currency with price stability. It also has regulatory authority over the country’s monetary policy along with the sole right to produce and circulate new currency inside the country.

Central banks are separate from the governments of each nation. The idea is that they should perform mostly autonomously from any political issues that may be going on inside the world of politics. This is because politicians don’t have the greatest track record when it comes to managing money. This is exactly why we have central banks.

Having said that, the central bank is often referred to as “the government’s bank” in the sense that it’s the one that handles the buying and selling of government bonds and other similar transactions.


Monetary Policy and Money Supply

Before we go deep into the tools that central banks use to enact monetary policy it would be useful if we first took a more in-depth look into what monetary policy actually is.

Monetary policy consists of the actions that a central bank takes which determine the size and rate of growth of the available money supply. This in turn will have an effect on interest rates because interest rates are one of the central bankers favorite monetary policy tools they use to help steer the economy.

Monetary policyy is maintained through actions such as modifying the interest rate, buying or selling government bonds, and changing the amount of money banks are required to keep on hand for client withdrawals.

Broadly speaking there are two types of monetary policy; expansionary and contractionary. This is what we will take a look at next.


Expansionary Monetary Policy

Expansionary monetary policy attempts to “Increase” the money supply in order to lower unemployment, boost private-sector borrowing, encourage consumer spending, and stimulate overall economic growth.

This is often referred to as "easy monetary policy." This easy monetary policy description applied to almost all major central banks after the 2007-2008 Great Financial Crisis. Almost all developed nations slashed their interest rates in an attempt to get their economies growing and expanding again.

Many economists have described this time as a modern-day depression. Interest rates were driven way down and in many cases near zero across most G8 central banks. In fact, some central banks set their interest rates below zero which means they had negative interest rates! This is not something that the world has ever seen before and we are not totally sure what the long-term ramifications are for such untraditional actions just yet.

Can you imagine putting your money into a bank and having them tell you that they are going to charge you interest for the privilege of holding onto your cash? But this is exactly what happened and is currently still happening.


Contractionary Monetary Policy

Contractionary monetary policy attempts “Decrease” or slow the rate of growth in the money supply. Sometimes a central bank will need to outright decrease the money supply in order to control inflation that is growing at a rate higher than the central bank's mandate.

Historically speaking, this has sometimes been a necessary option for a central bank. There are times when contractionary monetary policy is needed to slow economic growth, increase unemployment and depress borrowing and spending by consumers and businesses. It is just not sustainable to think an economy can grow infinitely at large growth rates. This is only done in a situation where inflation is getting way too high and needs to be controlled.

The point here is that central banks are trying to keep inflation stable and in line with their mandate. This is typically around 2% per year. If inflation starts to get too low then they will have an expansionary monetary policy and will use the tools they have to stimulate inflation. If inflation starts to get too high then the central bank will switch to a contractionary monetary policy. The whole point is to control boom and bust cycles by keeping volatility within the economy low.


When Contractionary Monetary Policy Goes Wrong

Monetary policy is not perfect all the time. It really is quite a difficult balancing act to steer economies that are so large and have so many moving parts. Let’s look at a quick example of when contractionary monetary policy goes so wrong for a couple of obvious reasons.

In the early 1980s, the Federal Reserve was forced into a situation where they had no choice but to stage an intervention. The Fed really dropped the ball and allowed inflation to get completely out of control which now reached roughly 15% annually. Do you think this was a little out of line with their mandate of keeping inflation levels stable at around 2%? It’s not like inflation went up to 15% overnight, it was years in the making.

This out-of-control inflation forced the Fed to take decisive action. In a historical event, they chose to raise the benchmark interest rate to 20%! This hike resulted in a severe recession. However, it did keep the out-of-control inflation in check by unfortunately causing harm to many everyday people and companies. There was simply no way for regular people to prepare for that level of interest rate shock.

It's obvious that inflation got so out of control because the Fed waited way too long to start slowing down the economy. Had the Fed reacted years earlier it could have kept with one of its mandates to keep price stability under control. This is considered one of the few times that a major central bank failed miserably to meet its mandates to the economy.


Exchange Rates

Exchange rates, or the pricing of currency, are generally moved by forces outside of the control of central banks. But this is not always the case because sometimes central banks will step into the market and attempt to influence the pricing of exchange rates.

We have a larger Wiki on Exchange rates that covers everything you need to know including What an Exchange Rate is, Exchange Rate Examples, The Technical Aspects of Exchange Rates, How Exchange Rates are priced and Exchange Rate Pricing Theories.

The main page for Exchange rates is found here: Exchange rates


Money Supply

The money supply is just that; it’s the available supply of money that is circulating within an economy and globally of one particular currency. The central bank of each nation is tasked with controlling their country’s supply of money. The money supply is sometimes referred to as the “Money Stock”.

The central bank of each nation manipulates the money supply. They will increase or decrease the money supply depending on what their current monetary policies are. They do this by using a series of tools that can be employed in different market environments. A lot of this depends on where they believe they are in the economic cycle.

There are several tools that central banks can use to enact their monetary policies. In the next section, we will take an in-depth look at what tools the central banks have and how they use these tools to move the economy in the direction they desire.


Central Bank Monetary Policy Tools

Central banks are major monetary authorities that attempt to control the size and growth of money in several ways using Monetary Policy Tools. In the following Wiki on Monetary Policy Tools we will cover the types and kinds of tools that Central Banks use to control and steer the economy in their desired direction. We will look at:

The main Wiki on Monetary Policy Tools can be found HERE.


Hawks and Doves

Now we are going to look at the individual central bank members' stances. That’s right, not all central bankers within a particular central bank will want the same thing when it comes to monetary policies. This means that some may prefer to have higher interest rates and other members will prefer lower interest rates and they are called Hawks and Doves. The differences in those opinions are what we discuss in the following Wiki on Hawks and Doves.

In this Wiki on Hawks and Doves you will learn the differences between a Hawk, a Dove and a Centrist. We will also explore Central Bank Member Speeches, Why not all Central Bankers are Created Equal, and why we as traders Care about Hawks and Doves.

You can access the Wiki on Hawks and Doves HERE.


Major Central Banks

USA – Federal Reserve (Fed)

The Federal Reserve is by far the most influential central bank in the world at the time of this writing in mid-2022. Its currency is involved in an estimated 70% of all FX transactions that take place every single day. Because of this, the actions that the Fed takes can have a strong impact on most of the world’s currency valuations. This is because the USD is one-half of most all major currency pairs.

For these reasons and more, we have created a separate Wiki devoted to understanding the Federal Reserve. In this Wiki, you will learn about the Fed Structure, its Mandate, Fed Minutes, Forward Guidance, and How the Fed Enacts its Monetary Policies.

The main Wiki for the Federal Reserve can be found HERE.


Europe – European Central Bank (ECB)

The European Central Bank (ECB) is the prime component of the Eurosystem and the European System of Central Banks (ESCB). It is also one of seven institutions of the European Union. At the time of this writing the ECB is one of the most important central banks in the world.

In this Wiki we will explore the ECB structure, Forward guidance, the ECB meetings, their mandate and more.

The main Wiki for the European Central Bank can be found HERE.


United Kingdom – The Bank of England (BOE)

The Bank of England (BOE) is the central bank of the United Kingdom and the model on which most modern central banks have been based. The BOE was established in 1694 to act as the English Government's banker, and is still one of the bankers for the Government of the United Kingdom.

In this Wiki we will take a look at the Bank of England's Structure, Mandate and more.

The main Wiki for the The Bank of England can be found HERE.


Japan – The Bank of Japan (BOJ)

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is headquartered in the Nihonbashi business district in Tokyo. The BOJ is the Japanese central bank, which is responsible for issuing and handling currency and treasury securities, implementing monetary policy, maintaining the stability of the Japanese financial system, and providing settling and clearing services.

In this Wiki we will look at the BOJ structure, BOJ jawboning, their mandate and more.

The main Wiki for the The Bank of Japan can be found HERE.


Switzerland – Swiss National Bank (SNB)

The term Swiss National Bank (SNB) refers to the central bank of Switzerland. Founded in 1906, the SNB is located in Berne and Zurich, with six other offices in the country along with a branch office in Singapore. The central bank acts as an independent body, taking charge of the country's monetary policy and ensuring national price stability.

In this Wiki we will cover the SNB structure, Monetary Policy, Export Policies and more.

The main Wiki for the Swiss National Bank can be found HERE.


Canada – The Bank of Canada (BOC)

The Bank of Canada (BOC) is Canada's central bank and was established in 1934 under the Bank of Canada Act. The Act stated that the Bank of Canada was created “to promote the economic and financial welfare of Canada.” The BOC and its Governor are responsible for setting monetary policies, printing money, and determining the Canadian banks' interest rates.

In this Wiki, we will explore the Bank of Canada, its structure, monetary policy and more.

The main Wiki for the The Bank of Canada can be found HERE.


Australia – The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is the central bank of Australia. The bank sets the country's monetary policy and issues and manages the Australian dollar. The RBA is involved in banking and registry services for federal agencies and some international central banks. The bank is owned entirely by the Australian government and was established in 1960.

In this Wiki, we will explore the RBA, its structure, mandates and more.

The main Wiki for the The Reserve Bank of Australia can be found HERE.


New Zealand – The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is the name of the central bank of New Zealand. Its primary purpose is to maintain the stability of New Zealand's financial system.

In this Wiki, We will explore The Reserve Bank of New Zealand, its structure, mandates and more.

The main Wiki for the The Reserve Bank of New Zealand can be found HERE.


Other Central Banks

There are of course other central banks that you can trade around but the ones presented here are the major ones that will present traders with the majority of their trading opportunities. Once you get comfortable with how to analyze a central bank you then might want to check out some of the Scandinavian central banks or Mexico as their currencies are liquid enough to trade and are increasing in popularity with brokers and retail traders.

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